The global oil demand is expected to grow slower in the coming months with warmer temperatures to reduce consumption, which could lead to surplus in the first half of next year, he said. on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency.
In its monthly oil market report, the Paris IEA has cut its forecast for oil demand this year for 100,000 barrels a day (bpd). It is expected to be expected about 1.5 million barrels a year in 2017 next year. 1.3 million bpd for the year 2018.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and temporary disruption in supply in countries such as Nigeria and Iraq since 2015 oil over $ 60, which were pushed for the first time, while global stockpiles fell, leading many observers to increase their forecasts.
“Does this mean that the market has found ‘normal’, where the fund is supposed to have changed from $ 50 / bbl to $ 60 / bbl? It can be a tempting vision. The tension in the Middle East has not been mitigated, “the IEA said.
“However, if these issues are passable, a new view of the fundamentals confirms the opinion we expressed last month that the market balance in 2018 is not as stricter as some wanted, and is actually a new” normal “
The IEA has pointed out that OPEC production for 830,000 barrels a day has fallen in October compared to last year, although demand for crude oil in the Group will be 32.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter. This year and 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.
Compliance with the 1.8m barrel cut rate per day with 10 partners was 96 per cent in October. This is the greatest value since the adoption of the January reduction bid agreement.
The greatest threat to market equilibrium and demand for compensation is the growth in the supply of countries where OPEC does not belong.
“Even after mild growth constraints, production will not be part of OPEC, and growth of 700,000 barrels a day this year will continue to increase to 1.4 million barrels a day this year,” the IEA said.
“Without a geopolitical bonus, we could not see a” new normal “price of oil
Oil reserves in the richest countries in the world spent for the first time in two years 40 million barrels per 3 billion barrels, partly due to the hurricane Harvey, which has a lot of refinery capacity in the United States closed. in August.